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reasonsforhope · 11 hours

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Double dose of articles about how crime is actually plummeting

From the UK:

"Seventy-eight per cent of people in England and Wales think that crime has gone up in the last few years, according to the latest survey. But the data on actual crime shows the exact opposite.

As of 2024, violence, burglary and car crime have been declining for 30 years and by close to 90%, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) – our best indicator of true crime levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording.

The drop in violence includes domestic violence and other violence against women. Anti-social behaviour has similarly declined. While increased fraud and computer misuse now make up half of crime, this mainly reflects how far the rates of other crimes have fallen.

All high-income countries have experienced similar trends, and there is scientific consensus that the decline in crime is a real phenomenon.

The perception gap

So why is there such a gulf between public perception and the reality of crime trends? A regular YouGov poll asks respondents for their top three concerns from a broad set of issues. Concern about crime went from a low in 2016 (when people were more concerned with Brexit), quadrupled by 2019 and plummeted during the pandemic when people had other worries. But in the last year, the public’s concern about crime has risen again.

There are many possible explanations for this, of which the first is poor information. A study published in 1998 found that “people who watch a lot of television or who read a lot of newspapers will be exposed to a steady diet of crime stories” that does not reflect official statistics.

The old news media adage “if it bleeds, it leads” reflects how violent news stories, including crime increases and serious crimes, capture public attention. Knife crime grabs headlines in the UK, but our shock at individual incidents is testament to their rarity and our relative success in controlling violence – many gun crimes do not make the news in the US.

Most recent terrorist attacks in the UK have featured knives (plus a thwarted Liverpool bomber), but there is little discussion of how this indicates that measures to restrict guns and bomb-making resources are effective."

-via The Conversation, May 13, 2024

And the United States:

"[The United States experienced a spike in crime rates in 2020, during the pandemic.] But in 2023, crime in America looked very different.

"At some point in 2022 — at the end of 2022 or through 2023 — there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall," said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics.

In cities big and small, from both coasts, violence has dropped.

"The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too.

Yet when you ask people about crime in the country, the perception is it's getting a lot worse.

A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there was either a "very" or "extremely" serious crime problem — the highest in the poll's history going back to 2000.

So what's going on?

What the cities are seeing

What you see depends a lot on what you're looking at, according to Asher.

"There's never been a news story that said, 'There were no robberies yesterday, nobody really shoplifted at Walgreens,'" he said.

"Especially with murder, there's no doubt that it is falling at [a] really fast pace right now. And the only way that I find to discuss it with people is to talk about what the data says." ...

For cities like San Francisco, Baltimore and Minneapolis, there may be different factors at play [in crime declining]. And in some instances, it comes as the number of police officers declines too.

Baltimore police are chronically short of their recruitment goal, and as of last September had more than 750 vacant positions, according to a state audit report...

In Minneapolis, police staffing has plummeted. According to the Star Tribune, there are about 560 active officers — down from nearly 900 in 2019. Mannix said the 2020 police killing of George Floyd resulted in an unprecedented exodus from the department...

In Minneapolis, the city is putting more financial resources into nontraditional policing initiatives. The Department of Neighborhood Safety, which addresses violence through a public health lens, received $22 million in the 2024 budget."

-via NPR, February 12, 2024

#crime #violate crime #united kingdom #england #wales #united states #us politics #baltimore #san francisco #police #defund the police #good news #hope

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mercurycft · 5 hours

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𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐏𝐓𝐄𝐑 𝐓𝐖𝐎 — 𝐀𝐖𝐅𝐂

## leah williamson & awfc x american!reader !!

contains 18+ themes & language - smut / nsfw

chapter one - series masterlist - account masterlist

2.5k words

it was a rush of lips and hands, bodies wrestling through the door and struggling to get across the threshold in a way that minimised the loss of contact between you. you were preoccupied, but your mind boggled trying to establish what had led to this exact point of the evening - well, morning.

it was early, late, however you would choose to describe it - the early morning hue of blue threatened to peek through the blinds, hiding you both from the awakening population beyond those four walls.

you couldn’t remember the last time you were out till the early hours of the morning, you couldn't remember the last time you felt this - the type of want and need that sat heavy in the deepest pit of your stomach and coiled around your organs. more importantly, you couldn’t remember the last time you felt this for a woman. a wicked uncertainty pricked at your nerves, but in all honesty, you couldn’t focus on anything other than her and her sweetness.

it was 3am, and your respective groups were both forgotten and cast to become nothing more than a distant memory - minds and subconscious too overwhelmed with the feeling of her pressed against your front, her right hand planted firmly on your hip and her left wrapped around your jaw firmly; guiding your lips against hers in a rhythm suited to her. it was fast-paced, your fingertips laced with a form of desperation that had you gripping the fabric of her shirt and pulling her in closer than physics would allow.

she was pushy, but in control, her movements were calm and calculated. she knew what she wanted, but was also well aware of the way your body was fighting for her, dismissing the fear that would sporadically splash across the forefront of your mind. her eyes rolled into the back of her head at the way you drank her in, allowing the taste of her mouth to lay across your tastebuds in a disgustingly willing manner.

her hands were everywhere but nowhere at the same time and her lips followed suit, your back pressed against the wall just beyond the door of her hotel room.

the alcoholic burn of your last shot threatened to scar the skin of your throat, but you were too consumed in the moment to even care as the acid crept through your stomach; practically fist-fighting the arousal that continued to spread through your bottom half like a wildfire.

she had you exactly where she wanted you, quivering beneath her, back pressed against the wall with your skirt hoisted up your thighs and sat bunched on your hips; your thighs and underwear on full display for her.

you were never usually this girl, the one-night stand type, far too concerned about feelings and thoughts to ever indulge in some of your friend's favourite weekend pass-time. on this occasion though, your concerns seemed to melt away along with any thoughts of stopping. it might've been the alcohol, sure. or maybe it was the way she heaved for breath above you, nostrils flared and chest rising and falling vigorously.

whatever it was, you were sure you never wanted to stop.

leah's bare skin was hot against yours as she shed the outer shirt she was wearing, tossing it to fall somewhere into the abyss behind you both, leaving her in just a tight-fitted vest and her jeans. you watched on with hungry eyes when she pulled back briefly to chuck the shirt away, your lip settling between your teeth when you caught a glimpse of her smirk.

when her lips reached to find you again, you were quick to find her jaw with a gentle hand - tilting her head back and exposing the delicately tanned skin of her neck. wasting no time, your lips pressed roughly to the skin. teeth grazing and tongue smoothing the reddening marks in their wake, savouring the provocative noises that slipped through the pits of her throat when your lips carried a particularly sensitive area.

at the feeling of your lips and tongue laying flat against her tightening skin, she pulled away from the grasp of your lips, hand finding your neck firmly.

“no marks,” she all but grunted at the sight of your swollen lips and big glazed-over eyes staring up at her as you nod in agreement to her words. she wasn’t much taller than you, but the four inches seemed to have her towering over you in this position.

your back arches when she presses closer, her lips finding yours again with an urgency that matches your own. you reach up, tangling your fingers in her hair as she deepens the kiss, opening you up to a world of sensation.

her lips trail down your jaw again, leaving a hot, wet path in their wake, and lower still, until they find the sensitive skin at the base of your neck. she sucks lightly, and you feel your knees go weak at the sensation.

“i thought you said no marks,” you quip in a breathy whisper, fingers tangled in the roots of her hair and head tilted back, offering more access so her lips can continue to work their magic on your throat.

you feel her chuckle against you, her movement never faltering even as you wriggled and writhed beneath her; her hands doing a good job at keeping you exactly where she wanted.

“i make the rules, baby, i don’t have to follow them..”

you didn’t have time to verbally react when u felt both of her hands land on your hips, but the fire inside you crackled and spat at her words. she guided you back further into the room and when the back of your legs hit the edge of her bed, she laid you down on the sheets - climbing up with a lingering touch until you were face to face again.

she smirked at the sight of you below her, hair spread around you on the bed like a halo - but the way your hips were rutting up against hers had her thinking maybe instead it should be a pair of devil horns.

she had you stripped in seconds, left in nothing but your matching underwear. she had shimmied you up the bed until your head lay comfortably on the pillows, limbs spread apart and thighs bent open - on full display for her. leah was further down the bed, laid on her front between your legs - trying not to drool at the sight in front of her.

the thought of you laying completely at her disposal had your legs fighting to close, though the action was immediately stopped by a firm hand and a dark set of eyes meeting your own.

"leah, it's been-" your attempt at explanation futile when she interrupted you.

“dont.” she whispered, and you tried to swallow the nerves threatening to creep into play. “let me see you, love.”

you nodded cautiously, legs falling open in defeat onto the bed and eyes redirecting to fixate on the textured ceiling above you. her voice was like velvet below you, fingertips gently grazing the fabric of your thong as you tried to slow your breathing and calm the overwhelming heartbeat in your ears. she must've sensed your apprehension because you felt her fingers retreat and her weight shift up onto her arms.

"y/n, look at me." you did, begrudgingly. taking a deep breath when her eyebrows cocked and her lips parted again. "tell me not to and i won't," she paused, placing a surprisingly gentle kiss on your raised knee before continuing "or tell me you want this, and I'll let you have my tongue, pretty girl."

her words had your eyes rolling and back arching off the bed in response, "i want this, badly. please,"

that was all leah needed, a smirk settling across her lips again and her body returning to its previous position - face level with your very evident desperation.

her tongue traced a lazy figure-eight pattern on your inner thigh, her hot breath making your skin tingle and your core ache. you lifted your hips in response, jawe clenched tightly as your mind filled with vulgar images of her lips wrapped around you, her tongue on you. her fingers found their way to your core, slipping beneath the lacy fabric of your underwear and teasing your swollen clit. you moaned, pressing your hips forward towards the source of the friction, already silently begging her for more.

"that's it, baby," she purred, her voice low and sultry. "you're so wet," she kept her eyes focused on what she could see of your face whilst her other hand worked to move your underwear to the side, allowing space for her tongue to replace her fingers against your clit.

she gave in for just a second, allowing her tongue to lay flat against your clit before pulling away and swallowing your taste entirely. watching as you grunted in frustration at the now lack of contact where you needed her most.

“what’s the matter, love?” she whispered teasingly; her fingers running slowly through your folds and collecting your slick onto her fingers. “tell me what you want, y/n,”

“i want you,” you groaned, head lifting to finally look into her eyes. goosebumps raised on your skin when her fingers flitted over your clit gently, “please leah, i need you..”

“oh you need me? hm?”

“yes!” you huffed, head hitting the pillows again in defeat of her teasing. though your annoyance, and peace was short-lived when a single finger slipped methodically into your tight hole. your mouth falling agape when you felt the flat of her finger grinding against your g-spot briefly before her finger retracted out of you.

“ask nicely.” she whispered, tongue running along the inside of her cheek.

“please,” it was quiet, meek, and not enough.

“you can do better than that, baby,”

“please leah, please fuck me.” you said a bit louder, your pleading met with a cocky smile and your throbbing hole filled with her fingers once more. she started with one, before adding a second. relishing in the tight squeeze of your pussy every time her fingers pulled out just to push back in, harder.

you couldn’t form coherent sentences - mind too clouded with the feeling of her curling her fingers perfectly inside of you and her palm pressing against your clit with every move of her hand.

you had one hand twisted in the bed sheets beside you and the other wrapped around her arm, the nails digging into her skin were sure to leave imprints.

leah let you lay like this for a while, keeping you teetering on the edge of release until she removed herself entirely from you and her weight lifted from the bed. your eyes shot open at this, breathing laboured as you sat up to look at her. you didn't know what you had expected to see, but what you were met with was so much more than that.

she stood at the end of the bed, hands flicking her belt open and pulling it back through the loops in her jeans. then they moved to her zipper, yanking it down and letting her jeans fall to pool around her ankles - revealing her muscular legs to you. then she moved to her top, pulling it up and over her head and discarding that beside her jeans.

her underwear then joined the articles of clothes littering the carpet and she climbed back up the bed to join you, bringing her lips to yours harshly; teeth pulling on your bottom lip causing you to hiss and lick over the sting.

you knew exactly how to move you, pulling your legs back apart and threading her own between them - all whilst still attacking your lips with her own. you were whining beneath her, swallowing her grunts when she finally had you positioned how she wanted.

pulling back to check for any signs of doubt before continuing, when she couldn't find any she resumed her movement. lowering herself down, pressing her own heat against yours.

you shared a moan when you felt her hips rut against yours, moving in opposite directions; your clits rubbing together perfectly. you could feel how wet she was, her own juices mingling with yours as you moved together. she moved against you like she was born to make you feel good, the perfect amount of pressure to have you clawing at the skin of her back and squeezing the skin of her thighs which straddled your own.

"there you go, baby," she whispered, tongue licking across your bottom lip. "can feel how wet you are pressed against my pussy."

this was new territory for you, but god were you enjoying it.

it wasn't long before you felt your orgasm beating inside your stomach, creeping closer and closer to your release with every snap of leah's hips against your own.

"fuck, leah, i'm gonna cum.." you moaned, mouth open and muscles tensed under her. she nodded in agreement, her own orgasm building beside yours.

"cum with me, y/n" she muttered, taking your lips against hers when your mouth fell and threatened to cry out into the room. she kissed you as your thighs shook, her own release following suit and crashing through her frame like a freight train.

"good girl, there you go.." she encouraged, mouth millimetres from yours as her hips stilled and the sounds of your breathing harmonised into the room around you. she stayed ontop of you for a minute, then crashed onto the bed beside you - your chests moving in sync.

"jesus christ," you exhaled into the space around you, the smell of sweat and sex sitting dormant in the air.

"that was good.." she whispered, the backs of her knuckles rubbing sweetly against the skin of the thigh closest to her in the bed. her words laced with sleep as her breathing seemed to calm, now matching yours in a mellow rhythm.

you replied, you think. maybe?

the next morning

last night's bad decisions were evident as soon as your eyes opened in the morning, a piercing headache shooting through your skull and the back of your neck. you reached to find your phone on your nightstand but were met with nothing but empty space.

at the lack of familiar furniture beside you, your eyes crept around the room. though still adjusting to the light, the realisation that you were not in your own bed dawned on you quickly.

these thoughts were solidified when you looked beside you and the memories of last night came flooding back as if a dam had just broken in your mind. she looked peaceful, her eyes softly closed and arms outstretched beside her. you, on the other hand, were utterly shocked at your own actions; watching on anxiously frozen as she started to stir.

"shit.."

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